Tariffs – this is going to be a buzzword in 2025! Whether you support them or not, there is no doubt that they will significantly impact global supply chains. Increased customs complexities and growing uncertainty are expected to lead to more volatility across various industries. President Donald Trump has had a busy first few weeks since his inauguration. One of the most notable changes under his administration is the overhaul of trade tariffs, which has already begun reshaping global logistics.
The De Minimis Rule Cancellation and Its Consequences
One of the biggest impacts to the airfreight industry is cancelling the ‘de minimis rule.’ This rule previously exempted shipments worth less than US$800 from import duties. A report from June 2023 estimated that Chinese retailers, particularly e-commerce giants such as Shein and Temu, accounted for over 30% of all packages shipped to the U.S. daily under this exemption, the majority of which were transported via airfreight.
With the cancellation of this rule, shoppers will face significantly higher prices on imported goods due to additional customs duties. This is likely to cause a steep decline in order volumes, particularly from international e-commerce sellers who rely heavily on duty-free thresholds to keep their prices competitive.
How This Will Impact the Airfreight Industry
The sudden reduction in e-commerce shipments means that airfreight capacity will open up, as space previously occupied by these shipments will no longer be in demand. This could initially drive airfreight rates lower in the short term as airlines and cargo operators adjust to the shift. However, the longer-term impact will depend on how e-commerce players adapt their supply chains – potentially consolidating shipments or finding alternative logistics solutions.
A Shifting Trade Landscape
As tariffs remain a focal point of U.S. trade policy, companies across the supply chain, including freight forwarders, customs brokers, and airfreight operators, must prepare for increased customs scrutiny and potential processing delays. The ongoing trade tensions, particularly with China, could see further policy reversals or adjustments, adding to the uncertainty.
According to a recent article in The Loadstar, the de minimis ban has been paused following ‘processing issues’ as trade tensions escalate. However, the long-term trajectory remains uncertain, making it crucial for businesses in the airfreight industry to stay informed and adaptable.
Final Thoughts
The elimination of the de minimis rule marks a significant shift in global trade and airfreight logistics. While the immediate effect may be lower airfreight rates due to decreased e-commerce volume, the long-term consequences will depend on how supply chains evolve to navigate new tariff structures. Freight forwarders and logistics providers must stay agile, anticipate further policy changes, and prepare for a more complex and regulated international trade environment.
As 2025 unfolds, one thing is clear – tariffs will continue to shape the future of airfreight and global trade.